El Nino On The Way?

Equatorial upper-ocean temperature in the Pacific has risen by 2C over the last 2 months:

This anomalously warm water can be seen rising towards the surface here. As a result, sea surface temperatures have increased over the last month (see animation here).

There has also been a trend for slightly weaker trade winds beginning in January. All of this suggests that an El Nino could develop in time to disrupt the Atlantic hurricane season.