Forecast Verification and Tornado Outlook Mar 30

SPC storm reports indicates that tornadoes only occurred slightly north of my outlooked  area for March 27. This is somewhat surprising because dew points were only in the lower 50s in northern Missouri. It seems that strong lift and steep lapse rates were able to compensate.

More tornadoes are possible in the Southern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday:

Cape Cod Blizzard Update

The 955 mb storm which hit Cape Cod two days ago also hit buoy 44027 (20 nautical miles southeast of Jonesport, ME) with 103 (118 mph) knot winds:

The next day (Mar 27), buoy 44141 (about 300 miles southeast of Nova Scotia) recorded 54 foot waves:

Great Lakes Ice Cover Update

Yesterday (March 26) the Great Lakes were still 74.3% ice covered:

At this time last year, the Great Lakes were almost ice free:

Even after the cold winter of 2011, only Lake Eerie had significant ice:

The last time ice cover was anything close to this year was 2009:

Ice covered about the same areas in 2009 as this year, but ice concentration was lower in 2009.

Temperatures have been 8 to 12 degrees below normal across the Great Lakes during the last 30 days:

Cape Cod Blizzard

This morning, a storm hit Cape Cod with heavy snow and hurricane force winds, causing 7,800 power outages. Nantucket was hit with 9.5" of snow and 83 mph winds. The surface low was at 955 mb today, about 250 miles east of Cape Cod.

Current water vapor image:

Tornado Outlook Mar 26

Moved the risk area to the north.

Tornado Outlook March 25

There is a slight tornado risk on Thursday from around 0Z to 6Z (7 PM - 1 AM CDT). Wind and hail are the more likely threats.