Huricane Dorian likely to hit Florida

The HMON, HWRF, GFS, GDPS, ECMWF, GEFS, CMCE and EPS all indicate Hurricane Dorian will landfall somewhere in central or southern Florida. Landfall is most likely Monday night of Tuesday morning (Sept 2nd or 3rd). Dorian may slow as it approaches Florida, which could prolong the impact of wind and storm surge, and increase the risk of flooding. Though it's still early, the models are now generally putting Dorian's track near West Palm Beach or Port St. Lucie.

Dorain is currently a category 2 hurricane with wind estimated at 105 mph. Dorian will be entering an area with light shear and water temperatures in the mid 80s. This should allow Dorian to strengthen to category 4.

Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew has become a category 5 storm with 160 mph wind and a minimum central pressure of 941 mb. The wind speed doubled in 24 hours. At 11 PM EDT on September 29th, it was only an 80 mph storm. None of the models had indicated such a rapid strengthening.

Matthew is the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic in over 9 years. The last category 5 was Hurricane Felix in September of 2007. Felix made landfall in Nicaragua. The US hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 2005.

Matthew is located south of Haiti and moving westward. It will soon begin curving to the north as it moves toward an upper trough. Matthew will likely pass near Jamaica, and cross Cuba and move into the Bahamas. It's too early to tell if Matthew poses a threat to the US East Coast. It may depend in part on the behavior of a larger trough currently over the West Coast.

Hurricane Patricia Landfall

At 5 PM CDT, the eyewall of Patricia is over San Patricio. Current intensity is 900 mb, wind 165 knots (190 mph). Peak intensity was at 1 PM: pressure 879 mb, wind 175 knots (200 mph).

Update: NHC has indicated that at the time of landfall minimum pressure was 920 mb, and wind was 165 mph.

Hurricane Patricia

Hurricane Patricia has intensified at an incredible rate over the last 24 hours. At 4 AM CDT yesterday (Oct 22), Patricia was a 75 knot hurricane; by 4 AM today, based on data from the Hurricane Hunters, it was at 175 knots. This makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record for the NHC's area of responsibility, which includes the East Pacific and Atlantic. The minimum central pressure was estimated at 880 mb, another record for the East Pacific/Atlantic. The previous record was Hurricane Wilma at 882 mb. The record lowest pressure globally was Typhoon Tip in the West Pacific.

Hurricane Patricia should make landfall near Puerto Vallarta tonight. In addition to catastrophic storm surge and wind damage, flash flooding and mudslides will be a major problem, because Patricia will be moving directly into mountainous terrain.

Hurricane Joaquin Strengthens

At 12:00 PM EDT, data from a Hurricane Hunter plane prompted the NHC to increase the intensity of Joaquin to 135 knots (155 mph), and drop the minimum central pressure to 933 mb. Joaquin is expected to miss the US, but there is still some chance for it to pass close to Nova Scotia. Joaquin is moving north into areas with increasing shear and should not strengthen any further.

As tropical moisture, some of which is associated with Joaquin, has been forced into a front along the East Coast, over 14" was reported near Wilmington, NC over the last 2 days.

Hurricane Joaquin

Hurricane Joaquin has encountered water temperatures around 85F, and decreasing shear as it moves into the Bahamas. This has led to Joaquin strengthening from 70 knots to 110 knots over the last 24 hours. A trough over the southeast US should begin to turn Joaquin to the north within 24 hours. Ridging is forecast to develop over New England by Saturday, Oct 3. Although the models are still split, it is possible that the ridge will turn Joaquin westward and into the East Coast. This is a pattern similar to the one for Hurricane Sandy. Right now, models indicate that landfall may occur anywhere from South Carolina up to Newfoundland.

As Joaquin moves north, it will remain in water that is at least 80F until it moves north of Cape Hatteras. The depth of warm water will be sufficient to sustain a major hurricane as well:

Depth of the 26C isotherm

Even if Joaquin does not landfall, tropical moisture will be absorbed into the southeast US trough and produce flooding across the East Coast region:

Pacific Hurricanes

During El Ninos, the Atlantic hurricane season is usually quieter than normal, and the east and central Pacific is often more active than normal. In the image above, from left to right, we have Hurricane Kilo (winds 110 knots), Hurricane Ignacio (winds 120 knots), and Hurricane Jimena (winds 130 knots).

Hurricane Edouard

Hurricane Edouard reached category 3 intensity today at 1500Z. Winds are estimated to be 100 knots (115 mph), and pressure 955 mb. Edouard is passing to the east of Bermuda (far left in the image below), and has no chance of landfall.

Edouard is the first Atlantic hurricane to reach category 3 strength since Sandy did on October 25th, 2012.

Super Typhoon Halong

Super Typhoon Halong reached category 5 today with wind estimated at 140 knots (160 mph). Halong is currently south of Japan, and east of the Philippines. Halong will likely begin to impact Japan on Thursday, August 7.

Hurricane Arthur Update

Hurricane Arthur has strengthened to category 2 with wind at 85 knots (100 mph) and a central pressure of 973 mb. Winds have gusted to 73 knots (84 mph) at Cape Lookout, NC and to 79.1 knots (89.9 mph) at Hatteras, NC. Station 41036 (south of Morehead City) has reported 28.9 foot waves. Hurricane Arthur is beginning to accelerate to the northeast and will impact New England and Nova Scotia tomorrow.

Some recent satellite and radar history of Arthur:

 

Hurricane Arthur

Hurricane Arthur is now a category one hurricane with winds at 80 knots, and a central pressure of 980 mb. Arthur is moving north toward North Carolina, but a trough approaching the East Coast will cause a turn to the northeast later today. The center of Arthur will most likely pass over Cape Hatteras, but all of the North Carolina coast will be affected with high winds. A station at Wrightsville Beach, NC (near Wilmington) has already reported a 52 knot wind gust. With Arthur passing over water temperatures in the lower 80s, and with weak shear, some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Christina

Hurricane Christina rapidly intensified from category 1 with winds of 70 knots to category 4 with 130 knot winds over just a 21 hour period. This occurred from June 11th at 21Z to June 12th at 18Z.

Christina is already the second category 4 hurricane in the East Pacific this season. This is the earliest in the season that two hurricanes reached category 4 in the East Pacific since 1966 when satellite monitoring began.

Illinois Tornadoes November 17 2013

I managed to get some spectacular video of the EF-4 tornado that hit Washington, IL:

This video begins at 11:23 AM CST from 1 mile west of Benson, IL in Woodford County, at the junction of route 116 and 117. We are about 20 east-northeast of Peoria.

Damage along I-39:

Radar imagery shows a classic hook and a 70+ knot rotational couplet (delta v probably around 150 knots):

This tornado formed in an area with 1,000-1,500 CAPE, 400-500 helicity, 62-64 dew points, 50+ knot low level jet, and an impressive 500 mb left exit region. The tornado developed at 1705Z and passed about 1/3 of the way from Lincoln (sounding at 16Z) to Davenport (sounding at 14Z):

Storm reports from the 17th:

The NHC has named a storm in the Central Atlantic Melissa, but it does not appear to be tropical in nature. It is on the lower right.

Sandy Update and Winter Storms

The death toll from Sandy in the US and Canada has risen to 121, and damage is estimated at $50 billion. Over 8.1 million customers lost power, 2.5 million of which were in New Jersey, amounting to 62% of the state total. A total of 20,000 flights were cancelled. Aerial before and after photos of the damage Sandy caused are available here.

Nine days after Sandy made landfall, this nor'easter hit Fairhaven, MA with 65 mph wind, and Clintonville, CT with 13.5" of snow:

This same nor'easter brought cold air down across the East Coast which later prompted frost advisories (blue) for the morning of November 9th as far south Florida, including Gainesville and Ocala:

The blizzard warnings (red) in the image above in Montana are from a storm that hit Crosby, North Dakota with 18" of snow on November 10th, and prompted a freeze warning for Tucson, AZ for the morning of November 12th:

On the morning of the 12th, the low temperature at Tucson was 35, and a record low of 22 was set at Douglas, AZ.