Hurricane Joaquin has encountered water temperatures around 85F, and decreasing shear as it moves into the Bahamas. This has led to Joaquin strengthening from 70 knots to 110 knots over the last 24 hours. A trough over the southeast US should begin to turn Joaquin to the north within 24 hours. Ridging is forecast to develop over New England by Saturday, Oct 3. Although the models are still split, it is possible that the ridge will turn Joaquin westward and into the East Coast. This is a pattern similar to the one for Hurricane Sandy. Right now, models indicate that landfall may occur anywhere from South Carolina up to Newfoundland.
As Joaquin moves north, it will remain in water that is at least 80F until it moves north of Cape Hatteras. The depth of warm water will be sufficient to sustain a major hurricane as well:
Depth of the 26C isotherm
Even if Joaquin does not landfall, tropical moisture will be absorbed into the southeast US trough and produce flooding across the East Coast region:
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