Feb 26, 2014

Tornado Outlook Feb 26 2014

The threat of strong tornadoes should be low this time.

Feb 24, 2014

13 Years of Storm Chasing

Some scenes from storm chases from 2000-2013.

Feb 23, 2014

Forecast Verification Update

13 new tornado reports have been added to the SPC storm reports for February 20th. Several more tornado reports have been added along the northern border of my slight risk area, several have been added in the moderate risk zone, three were added near the southern edge of the slight risk, and three were added to the northeast of the risk area:
Overall, this indicates that my forecast was more accurate than it had seemed before.

Feb 21, 2014

February 20 Tornadoes and Forecast Verification

The storm reports graphic from SPC shows that most of the tornado reports were along the northern edge of the area I outlined yesterday. This was an area with limited instability, but intense lifting and helicity. A rapid refresh sounding for central Illinois near Springfield has only around 700 MLCAPE, but helicity over 800 m2/s2:
If it had been realized in the near storm environment, it may have been significant that SBCAPE was more than double the MLCAPE value:
The only tornado report in my moderate risk area was from a storm in far southern Illinois that hit Carbondale with 1 inch hail, and later went across I-64. This storm was actually the most interesting on radar, which may suggest it was producing tornadoes that nobody observed:

Further south, limiting factors for tornado development included clouds and rain during peak heating hours, and winds that were backing with height in the 850 to 600 mb layer, as seen on the Nashville sounding, but not so much at Little Rock:

Winds backing with height tends to reduce storm relative helicity encourage lines instead of discrete cells.

I made a 9 day forecast for this event which was one day late, and around 400 miles to the southwest.

Dew points were generally mid 50s in central Illinois to around 60 in southern Illinois.Here are some rapid refresh analysis charts from 12Z:






The same storm that produced tornadoes also prompted blizzard warnings from southern Minnesota to central Iowa. 10.5" of snow fell in north-central Iowa.

Feb 20, 2014

Tornado Threat Today

Expect thunderstorms to develop in eastern Missouri and eastern Arkansas by 20Z (2 PM) today. Primary hazards should be damaging wind and tornadoes. CAPE will be over 1,000 j/kg in Arkansas and Mississippi, with 0-1 km helicity above 200. In southern Illinois, CAPE will only be in the 500 - 1,000 range, but with 0-1 km helicity above 450.

Feb 19, 2014

Tornado Outlook Feb 19

Shifted slightly northeastward from the previous forecast.

Feb 18, 2014

Tornado Outlook Feb 18

There is a possibility of tornadoes during the afternoon and overnight on Thursday.

Feb 17, 2014

Tornado Outlook Feb 17

The tornado threat has been moved up one day to Thursday, Feb 20. The severity of the threat is reduced because of weaker instability.

Northeast Snow

Just two days after the East Coast was hit with a major winter storm, this Nor'easter hit the Northeast with more heavy snow:
This time, areas near to the coast received heavy snow amounts:

8" in Rhode Island (North Kingstown, Westerly)
15" in Massachusetts (Sandwich)
17.5" in Maine (Southwest Harbor)

A 52 mph wind gust was reported at Nantucket.

Feb 15, 2014

Chelyabinsk Meteor Impact and Shock Wave

Today (February 15th) is the first anniversary of the Chelyabinsk meteor impact, which produced about 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The shock wave damaged 7,200 buildings in six cities. At least 1,491 people were injured, mostly from broken glass from windows.





Perhaps in part because of the meteor strike, space agencies from around the world are establishing a group to help coordinate a response to any threatening asteroids in the future. The risk of another similar impact is not negligible. For example, 2000 SG344 is estimated to be over five times the mass of the Chelyabinsk meteor, and has a 1 in 417 chance of impact with Earth between 2069 and 2113.

Feb 14, 2014

Northeast Snow Update

Snowfall amounts update:

...MASSACHUSETTS...
LUDLOW                               16.0                    
ASHFIELD                             15.0                    
SPENCER                              15.0                    
SOUTHWICK                            13.6                    
PLAINFIELD                           13.4                    
SAVOY                                12.5                    
ACTON                                11.0                    
BECKET                               11.0                    
SUDBURY                              11.0                    
SHREWSBURY                           10.8                    
WESTBOROUGH                          10.5                    
CONCORD                               8.8                    

...MAINE...
FARMINGTON                           14.0                    
GREENWOOD                            14.0                    
CORNISH 1 SSW                        13.4                    
ISLAND FALLS                         13.0                    
NORTH WINDHAM 3 N                    11.0                    
SCARBOROUGH                          11.0                    
ASHLAND SSE                          10.5                    
CASCO 2 SW                           10.0                    
KINGBURY 2 SSE                       10.0                    
LIVERMORE FALLS 1 E                  10.0                    
PORTLAND JETPORT                      9.2                    
PARIS 4 E                             9.0                    
CARIBOU 1 N                           5.0                    

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
WASHINGTON 3 ESE                     11.6                    
GILFORD 3 SSE                        10.0                    
PETERBOROUGH                          8.5                    
MEREDITH                              8.1                    
EAST LEMPSTER                         8.0                    
NORTH SANDWICH 3 SE                   8.0                    
SOUTH HUDSON                          7.6                    
HENNIKER 1 SSE                        7.5                    
NASHUA                                7.0                    
RINDGE                                7.0                    
CONCORD                               6.6                    
BEDFORD                               6.0                    

...NEW YORK...
JEWETT                               25.8                    
COLUMBIAVILLE                        25.0                    
HOPEWELL JUNCTION                    22.0                    
POUGHKEEPSIE                         21.0                    
HARRIMAN                             20.5                    
STONY POINT                          17.2                    
EAST NASSAU                          16.5                    
BAYVILLE                             14.6                    
ALBANY 1 WNW                         14.5                    
PORT JERVIS                          14.5                    
CENTRAL PARK                         12.5                    
BAYSIDE                              11.8                    
LA GUARDIA ARPT                       7.7                    
JFK ARPT                              6.9                    
BROOKLYN 3.1 NW                       3.5 
 
...VERMONT...
MT. HOLLY                            20.0                    
POMFRET 2.6 N                        18.3                    
NORTHFIELD                           17.0                    
CORINTH                              15.7                    
WEST HALIFAX 0.2 SE                  14.5                    
CHESTER                              14.0                    
WEST RUTLAND 1.2 N                   13.4                    
ARLINGTON 0.9 SSW                    13.0                    
PITTSFORD                            13.0                    
EAST MONTPELIER                      12.0                    
JEFFERSONVILLE                       12.0                    
MONTPELIER                            2.1                     

Eastern US Snow and Ice Storm

Over the last four days (Feb 11-14), this storm produced 28.5" of snow in Virginia, 3" of sleet in South Carolina, and 1" of freezing rain in Louisiana and South Carolina:



Winter storm warnings were issued from Texas to the Northeast:
In parts of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, the unusual step of issuing a civil emergency message (light pink) was taken because of freezing rain:
This storm caused 6,500 flights to be cancelled and 800,000 customers to lose power across the eastern US.

Here is the full list of  snow, sleet, and freezing rain reports from the Weather Prediction Center:


...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 900 AM EST TUE FEB
11 THROUGH 300 AM EST FRI FEB 14...

...CONNECTICUT...
FAIRFIELD                            14.0                    
MILFORD                              13.5                    
DARIEN                               13.0                    
NORWALK                              12.0                    
GREENWICH                            11.0                    
WINSTED                              11.0                    
NORTH HAVEN                          10.7                    
BERLIN                               10.0                    
HARTFORD                             10.0                    
ROXBURY                              10.0                    
BRIDGEPORT ARPT                       9.5                    
BRISTOL                               9.0                    
COVENTRY                              9.0                    
WEST HARTFORD                         7.0                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHWICK                            13.0                    
SAVOY                                12.5                    
LUDLOW                               12.0                    
ACTON                                11.0                    
BECKET                               11.0                    
SUDBURY                              11.0                    
WESTBOROUGH                          10.5                    
WORCESTER 3 WNW                      10.5                    
GRAFTON                              10.0                    
HUNTINGTON                           10.0                    
LOWELL                               10.0                    
SPENCER                              10.0                    
READING                               9.0                    
FRAMINGHAM                            7.8                    
MILLIS                                7.5                    
LUNENBURG                             7.2                    

...MAINE...
CASCO 2 SW                           10.0                    
LIVERMORE FALLS 1 E                  10.0                    
PARIS 4 E                             9.0                    
AUBURN 2 W                            8.5                    
LEWISTON 2 E                          8.3                    
BRIDGTON                              8.2                    
WINTHROP 1 ENE                        8.0                    
YARMOUTH                              8.0                    
SACO                                  7.7                    
DURHAM                                7.3                    
ARUNDEL                               7.0                    
EASTPORT                              6.3                    
SURRY 2 E                             6.1                    
KINGBURY 2 SSE                        6.0                    
MILO                                  6.0                    

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
WASHINGTON 3 ESE                     11.6                    
GILFORD 3 SSE                        10.0                    
PETERBOROUGH                          8.5                    
MEREDITH                              8.1                    
EAST LEMPSTER                         8.0                    
NORTH SANDWICH 3 SE                   8.0                    
SOUTH HUDSON                          7.6                    
HENNIKER 1 SSE                        7.5                    
NASHUA                                7.0                    
RINDGE                                7.0                    
CONCORD                               6.6                    
BEDFORD                               6.0                    

...NEW JERSEY...
KEARNY                               15.0                    
EAST RUTHERFORD                      14.4                    
ROCKAWAY TWP                         14.0                    
VERONA                               14.0                    
WAYNE                                13.0                    
WESTFIELD                            13.0                    
PENNSAUKEN                           12.1                    
BASKING RIDGE                        12.0                    
NEWPORT                              12.0                    
WASHINGTON                           12.0                    
PITTSGROVE TWP 1.9 S                 11.8                    
CHERRY HILL                          11.7                    
MORRISTOWN                           11.6                    
CAMDEN                               11.5                    
STEWARTSVILLE                        11.5                    

...NEW YORK...
BAYVILLE                             14.6                    
HARRIMAN                             14.5                    
PORT JERVIS                          14.5                    
COMMACK                              14.0                    
BAY SHORE                            13.5                    
WOODBURY                             13.5                    
BRONXVILLE                           13.3                    
POTTER HOLLOW                        13.0                    
CONGERS                              12.8                    
SOUTH BERNE                          12.0                    
DOUGLASTON                           11.5                    
EARLTON                              11.5                    
DURHAM                               11.0                    
POUGHKEEPSIE                         10.6                    
HARRISON                             10.5                    
CENTRAL PARK                          9.5                    
LA GUARDIA ARPT                       7.7                    
ALBANY                                6.3                    
JFK ARPT                              5.5                    
BROOKLYN 3.1 NW                       3.5                    

...PENNSYLVANIA...
GLENCOE 1 E                          22.5                    
DINGMANS FERRY                       21.0                    
DOVER                                20.0                    
SEVEN VALLEYS                        18.0                    
HAZLETON                             16.0                    
LOGANVILLE                           16.0                    
NEW FREEDOM                          16.0                    
EXTON                                15.2                    
DOWNINGTOWN                          15.0                    
SPORTING HILL                        15.0                    
SHREWSBURY                           14.5                    
EASTON                               14.0                    
ALLENTOWN ARPT                       13.6                    
PERKASIE                             13.2                    
MILLERSVILLE                         12.6                    
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT                9.8                    
HARRISBURG INTL ARPT                  7.9                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
WEST GLOCESTER                        9.6                    
BURRILLVILLE                          9.0                    
NORHT FOSTER                          8.6                    
NORTH SCITUATE                        6.5                    
WOONSOCKET                            6.4                    
CUMBERLAND                            6.0                    

...VERMONT...
BELLOWS FALLS                         9.5                    
SOUTH NEWFANE                         9.0                    
TOWNSHEND                             8.0                    
WOODFORD                              8.0                    
CHESTER                               7.0                    
WASHINGTON                            7.0                    
LUDLOW 3 S                            6.8                    
CAVENDISH                             6.5                    
MT. HOLLY                             5.5                    
MONTPELIER                            2.1                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ICE AMOUNTS IN INCHES FROM
900 AM EST TUE FEB 11 THROUGH 300 AM EST FRI FEB 14...

...CONNECTICUT...
MERIDEN                               0.30                    
NAUGATUCK                             0.30                    
DANBURY AIRPORT                       0.20                    
NEW HAVEN                             0.20                    

...NEW JERSEY...
FORT LEE                              0.30                    

...NEW YORK...
SOUTH OZONE PARK                      0.30                    
STONY BROOK                           0.20                    

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...MASSACHUSETTS...
ROCKPORT                              54                    
CHATHAM                               53                    
EAST FALMOUTH                         52                    
ORLEANS                               52                    
MILTON 3 SSW                          51                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
CULLMAN                              10.0                    
HUNTSVILLE 7.9 SSE                   10.0                    
EVA                                   9.0                    
UNION GROVE                           7.0                    
HAMPTON COVE 2.1 WNW                  6.0                    
OWENS CROSSROADS 5 NW                 6.0                    
PISGAH 1.8 W                          6.0                    
TOWN CREEK                            6.0                    
HUNTSVILLE 4 ESE                      5.0                    
MOULTON 12 W                          5.0                    
TRINITY 4 SW                          5.0                    
ROGERSVILLE 6 ESE                     4.8                    
DOUBLE SPRINGS 2 N                    4.5                    
GOOD HOPE                             4.0                    
MOORES MILL 7 SSE                     4.0                    
NEW MARKET                            4.0                    
BIRMINGHAM 3 WSW                      3.0                    
SYLVAN SPRINGS                        3.0                    

...WASHINGTON DC...
DALECARLIA RESERVIOR                 10.0                    
WASHINGTON 1 E                        8.5                    
ADAMS MORGAN 1 S                      4.5                    

...DELAWARE...
NEWARK                               14.1                    
NEWPORT                              12.0                    
BEAR                                 11.0                    
NEW CASTLE                           10.0                    
WILMINGTON ARPT                      10.0                    

...GEORGIA...
BATESVILLE                           10.0                    
SUMMERVILLE 9.4 ENE                   9.8                    
CORNELIA 2 SW                         8.5                    
MOUNTAIN CITY 2 SW                    7.5                    
ELBERTON                              7.0                    
CARLTON 1.9 SSE                       6.2                    
CUMMING 5.2 S                         6.2                    
CLARKSVILLE                           6.0                    
RABUN GAP 2.1 SW                      5.9                    
MCCAYSVILLE 5.7 WSW                   4.6                    
CARNESVILLE 7.3 SW                    4.5                    

...KENTUCKY...
JENKINS                              14.0                    
DORTON                               12.0                    
MOUTHCARD                            12.0                    
CUMBERLAND                           11.0                    
ELKHORN CITY                         11.0                    
MOUSIE                               11.0                    
ROCKHOUSE                             9.0                    
THORNTON                              9.0                    
PIKEVILLE                             8.0                    
HARLAN 7 SE                           7.0                    
LUNCH                                 7.0                    
BENHAM                                6.5                    
MIDDLESBORO                           6.0                    

...MARYLAND...
GLYNDON 1 ESE                        26.0                    
WESTMINSTER 2 SE                     24.8                    
OWINGS MILLS                         24.0                    
REISTERSTOWN 4 ENE                   24.0                    
OAKLAND                              23.0                    
GAITHER 2 SE                         22.0                    
REDHOUSE                             22.0                    
DAMASCUS 3 SSW                       21.3                    
FREDERICK 3 NW                       20.5                    
FROSTBURG                            20.0                    
NEW MARKET                           19.0                    
GLYNDON                              18.0                    
NORRISVILLE                          18.0                    
MOUNT AIRY                           17.0                    
WESTERNPORT                          17.0                    
GAITHERSBURG 2.5 SW                  13.0                    
BWI ARPT                             12.3                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
BOONES HILL                          21.0                    
BOONVILLE                            19.0                    
STATESVILLE 3 N                      18.0                    
MOUNT AIRY                           17.0                    
GLADE VALLEY                         15.0                    
SALUDA 0.5 N                         15.0                    
WEST JEFFERSON                       14.5                    
IRON STATION                         14.0                    
FAIRVIEW                             13.0                    
JONAS RIDGE                          12.0                    
ROARING GAP                          12.0                    
LINVILLE                             11.0                    
CLYDE                                10.5                    
MORAVIAN FALLS                        9.0                    
SEVEN DEVILS                          9.0                    
WAYNESVILLE                           9.0                    
GREENSBORO 6 N                        7.0                    
PIEDMONT TRIAD ARPT                   7.0                    
RALEIGH 8 S                           6.0                    
CHARLOTTE 6 SSE                       5.5                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
CLOVER                               10.0                    
HEATH SPRINGS 2 NNW                   8.0                    
KERSHAW 6.8 ESE                       8.0                    
LANCASTER 6 NNE                       8.0                    
SILVERSTREET 5 WNW                    8.0                    
MAULDIN 5 E                           7.5                    
ROCK HILL 2.8 W                       7.5                    
BUFFALO                               7.0                    
POMARIA 5.0 NW                        6.7                    
ROCK HILL                             6.5                    
GREER 5.6 NW                          6.3                    
BETHUNE                               6.0                    
LANCASTER MILL                        6.0                    
LAURENS                               6.0                    
NEWBERRY                              6.0                    
WINNSBORO                             6.0                    
ANDERSON 5.3 N                        5.8                    
GREENWOOD 3 N                         5.5                    
HODGES 5.5 NE                         5.3                    
CHESTERFIELD                          5.0                    
YORK 3 S                              4.5                    
ANDERSON 7 SW                         4.0                    
LEXINGTON                             4.0                    
SENECA                                4.0                    
CHESTER                               3.5                    

...TENNESSEE...
JONESBOROUGH 2.5 SSW                 11.3                    
NORRIS 0.6 NW                        11.0                    
OOLTEWAH 2.0 S                        9.7                    
BENTON 2.3 ESE                        9.0                    
OAK RIDGE 5.7 NE                      8.6                    
ERWIN 11 SSW                          6.0                    
CROSSVILLE                            5.0                    
LIMESTONE 5 ENE                       5.0                    
GATLINBURG                            4.0                    
HUNTSVILLE                            4.0                    
TRACY CITY 6 WSW                      3.0                    
LYNNVILLE 7 NNE                       2.5                    
LAWRENCEBURG 6 E                      2.0                    
MONTEREY 5 E                          2.0                    
JAMESTOWN                             1.2                    

...VIRGINIA...
PILOT 1 W                            28.5                    
ALUM RIDGE                           26.3                    
COPPER HILL                          23.0                    
RADFORD                              22.0                    
CAVE SPRING                          21.5                    
ROANOKE                              21.0                    
HAYWOOD                              20.7                    
LINDEN 2 N                           20.5                    
GREENVILLE 3 E                       20.0                    
WINCHESTER                           20.0                    
MILLBORO                             19.2                    
HEATHERSTONE                         19.0                    
HARDY                                18.5                    
PURCELLVILLE                         17.0                    
SALEM CITY                           16.0                    
SNOW CREEK                           15.0                    
STUARTS DRAFT                        15.0                    
LAUREL RIDGE                         13.0                    
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP                  6.0                    
RICHMOND INTL ARPT                    3.7                    

...WEST VIRGINIA...
MOUNT STORM                          27.5                    
CHERRY GROVE 6 WSW                   25.0                    
BAYARD                               22.2                    
HARMAN                               21.0                    
BELINGTON                            20.0                    
MONTROSE                             20.0                    
BERKELEY                             19.3                    
HARPERS FERRY                        18.0                    
BURKES GARDEN                        17.0                    
CLINTONVILLE                         17.0                    
CRAIGSVILLE                          17.0                    
DAVIS                                17.0                    
GREENBANK                            17.0                    
ATHENS                               16.0                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SLEET AMOUNTS IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT
HAS ENDED...

...LOUISIANA...
FARMERVILLE                           1.00                    
BASTROP                               0.15                    
OAK GROVE                             0.10                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HAMPSTEAD 2 NNW                       0.50                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
FOREST ACRES 2 SSE                    3.00                    
AIKEN                                 2.00                    
BISHOPVILLE                           2.00                    
SPRINGDALE 7 WNW                      2.00                    
BAMBERG                               1.00                    
FORK 1 E                              0.30                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT
HAS ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
BESSEMER 4 SW                         0.70                    

...ARKANSAS...
BRADLEY                               0.25                    

...GEORGIA...
MILLEN 5 S                            0.75                    
SYLVANIA                              0.75                    
AUGUSTA                               0.50                    
MARIETTA                              0.50                    
PORTAL                                0.50                    
THOMSON                               0.50                    
MARTINEZ                              0.30                    
LINCOLNTON                            0.20                    
FLOWERY BRANCH 1 SSE                  0.10                    

...LOUISIANA...
TALLULAH                              1.00                    
BOSSIER CITY                          0.30                    
SHONGALOO 5 N                         0.30                    
WEST MONROE                           0.30                    
BRADLEY                               0.25                    
HOMER 1 N                             0.25                    
PINE PRAIRIE                          0.25                    
SHREVEPORT                            0.25                    
WINNSBORO                             0.25                    
KEACHI 8 ESE                          0.20                    
ESLER REGIONAL ARPT                   0.14                    
CLARKSVILLE CITY                      0.10                    
COLUMBIA 5 NNW                        0.10                    
LONGVIEW                              0.10                    
RUSTON 7 NW                           0.10                    
SHREVEPORT 10 SSW                     0.10                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
CARROLLTON                            0.20                    
VICKSBURG                             0.20                    
ACKERMAN                              0.10                    
CLINTON 4 S                           0.10                    
HAZLEHURST                            0.10                    
LOUISE                                0.10                    
MAYERSVILLE                           0.10                    
NATCHEZ                               0.10                    
ROLLING FORK                          0.10                    
ROXIE                                 0.10                    
YAZOO CITY                            0.10                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
WRIGHTSBORO 1 SSE                     0.56                    
CASTLE HAYNE 3 SSW                    0.25                    
NEWELL 3 S                            0.25                    
WILMINGTON                            0.20                    
ROCKINGHAM                            0.15                    
RALEIGH 5 NE                          0.13                    
CHAPEL HILL                           0.10                    
EMIT 1 SE                             0.10                    
HAMPSTEAD                             0.10                    
LILLINGTON 5 S                        0.10                    
MASONBORO                             0.10                    
SOUTHERN PINES                        0.10                    
SANFORD 1 S                           0.07                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
CROSS                                 1.00                    
HARLEYVILLE                           1.00                    
ORANGEBURG 1 N                        1.00                    
SMOAKS                                1.00                    
MONCKS CORNER                         0.75                    
AIKEN                                 0.70                    
BARNWELL                              0.70                    
COLUMBIA                              0.50                    
HAMPTON                               0.50                    
KNIGHTSVILLE 1 E                      0.50                    
MANNING                               0.50                    
MCCORMICK                             0.50                    
MULBERRY 2 SW                         0.50                    
OLD SANTEE CAN 1 WNW                  0.50                    
ORANGEBURG                            0.50                    
SAINT MATTHEWS                        0.50                    
SUMMERVILLE 1 S                       0.50                    
FLORENCE 1 WNW                        0.30                    

...TEXAS...
BULLARD 7 WNW                         0.25                    
CHRISTOVAL 4 WSW                      0.20                    
APPLEBY                               0.12                    
CLARKSVILLE CITY                      0.10                    
LONGVIEW                              0.10                    
SAN ANGELO 4 W                        0.10  

On February 8th, this 984 mb storm just off the east coast of Japan hit Tokyo with 10.6" of snow, the most in 45 years. Sendai received 13.7" of snow, the most in 78 years.


Feb 12, 2014

New Long Range Tornado Outlook Graphic

I am going to begin experimenting with my own long range tornado forecasts. These will include scenarios with higher uncertainty than would outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. This will allow for longer range outlooks in some cases. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center's outlooks do not include a tornado outlook beyond day 1.

Feb 8, 2014

6 Intense UK Storms

Yesterday (Feb 7), another very intense storm hit the British Isles. This one bottomed out at 941 mb.

This has been at least the 6th storm of 950 mb or lower to hit the British Isles since the 929 mb storm on Christmas eve.

Feb 6, 2014

Brutal Winter of 2014 Update

On February 4th, this storm prompted winter storm warnings from the Southern Plains to the Northeast:

This storm produced 2" of sleet at Cape Girardeau, IN, 0.33" of freezing rain at Northeast Philadelphia, and 0.25" of freezing rain at Central Park, NY. 0.50" ice of accumulated at South Ozone Park, Queens, NY; Wilson, AR; Atoka, TN; Martin, TN; Manchester, MD; Metuchen, NJ; and 0.75" of ice accumulated at Marion, KY.

Snowfall amounts include 11.5" at Hutchinson, KS; 13.2" at Topeka, KS; 15.5" at Eskridge, KS; 15" at Sayre, PA; 11.4" at Montague, NJ; 15" at Bainbridge, NY; 12.5" at Torrington, CT; 10.6" at Boston Logan, and 13.2" at Lunenburg, MA. At Chicago, the 7" of snow from this storm pushed the seasonal total to 59.6", already making it the 8th snowiest season since 1884, and the 3rd snowiest up to February 5th.

Also on February 4th, a 944 mb storm hit the British Isles, this time further south than previous storms from this season had:

Yesterday morning (Feb 5), the temperature at Denver dropped to -19. A record low maximum temperature of -1 was set on February 5th.

So far this winter, Waco, TX has had a record setting 53 freezes.

Starting in November, and continuing through January, temperatures have been far below normal for the Midwest, and below normal for almost the entire eastern two-thirds of the US:
In Siberia, temperatures were as low as -73 at Ojmjakon on February 1, and at Verhojansk on February 3 and 4.

Feb 3, 2014

Linux Mint vs Windows


Off topic: My experience with Linux Mint:

I have been using Windows for a long time now, but after reading the article Convenience Before Freedom: How Tech Companies Are Slowly Trapping You by Chris Hoffman last year, I decided it was time to see how hard it would be to get out of the Windows environment, just in case Microsoft ever locked everything down too much. I gave Linux Mint a try. Here's what happened.

The first thing I noticed was that USB devices such as a Netgear wireless network adapter or a game controller just worked immediately. No waiting for drivers to install like on Windows. Even a Sprint mobile broadband card was usable without installing anything. It just showed up as a CDMA connection when I clicked the network icon on the lower right.

With Linux, so many things are just built into the operating system - things that would require installing third party software on Windows. For example, I can just type md5sum "file name" in the terminal and it will calculate the MD5 for that file. For files with long names, I can hit the tab key to auto complete. Another example is that simply typing lscpu into the terminal produces vastly more information about the CPU than I could ever get out of Windows. Mounting ISOs can be done by right clicking on the file, and selecting open with, disk image mounter.

It is nice to not have to worry about malware so much while using Linux. And if something does go wrong (probably something other than malware) reinstalling is easy. No wondering if the product key can be found or if it will still work.

On windows, the updater sometimes does strange things such as suddenly showing up, saying that it is downloading updates, then disappearing. Why does it do that? On Linux Mint, the update manager icon is always visible, doesn't disappear, and doesn't try to install anything automatically.

The Linux Mint Software Manager makes it easy to see what might be worth installing because reviews are listed right next to each item.

Basic tasks such as browsing with Firefox, word processing etc. were no problem.

I was impressed by the fact that the video players that Linux Mint came with by default could play any video I could find. I later installed Openshot and found that it could do some things (but not all) better than any free video editor I came across on Windows.

The desktop backgrounds were outstanding.

Linux Mint also came with a decent BitTorrent client, Transmission.

Other software I later installed and found particularly useful includes:

Hardinfo - system information and benchmark tool
System Load Indicator - displays CPU, RAM, swap space, hard disk, networking
UNetbootin - creates live USB drives
Wine - compatibility layer for Windows applications
GParted - partition manager
Stellarium - planetarium software

Sadly, some of the game system emulators that I use almost everyday don't work quite as well on Linux as they do on Windows. Also, I couldn't get Google Earth to stop crashing on Linux Mint. So I am still using Windows most of the time now. But I am very happy to know that an open source operating system can do most things as well or better than Windows. With a little more work, it just might be able to completely replace Windows for me.

Feb 1, 2014

938 MB Storm

Yesterday (Jan 31) a storm nearing the British Isles was at 938 mb:

The minimum pressure of Hurricane Sandy was 940 mb. At 01:00 GMT (7 hours after the time of the images above), a buoy about 100 miles off the west coast of Ireland reported 41 foot waves.