Arctic Sea Ice Expansion

During the month of November, arctic sea ice extent expanded much more rapidly than the normal seasonal increase, especially in the Bering Sea. This can be seen clearly here. This is now the third year in row this has happened in almost exactly the same way and at the same time of year.Arctic sea ice extent anomaly - each line represents 1 million square km
Data from http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

It was also about three years ago that the sun went into a very quiet mode (see this page) and weather patterns have been different ever since. The greatly expanded sea ice in the Bering Sea increases the temperature gradient between it and the warm North Pacific Current and has been no doubt contributing to the unusually strong polar jet stream. Just yesterday, a 960 mb storm hit buoy 46035 in the Bering Sea with sustained 56.3 knot winds with gusts to 68.0 and waves of 38.4 feet. The effect downstream from all that energy includes record snowfall in the Pacific Northwest, and an ongoing winter storm for Southern Arizona and New Mexico and southwestern Texas which produced 52 mph sustained winds at Guadalupe Pass. Western Europe has also been hit with a number of Atlantic storms causing flooding and wind damage including one as strong as 953 mb on Nov. 21st which produced 44 foot waves just west of the British Isles.

Pacific Storm Update And Beijing Snow

Look at these high resolution water vapor images of the storm now located in the Bering Sea.It is rare to see a storm that wound up. It maintained a minimum pressure of 952 for 12 hours after my last update (from 6z-18z on Nov. 19th) and stayed under 960 for 24 (0z 19th-0z 20th). Despite going through an area with very sparse observations, buoy 46035 recorded 56.3 knot wind gusts and buoy 46071, near the west end of the Aleutians, recorded 44.6 foot waves. Quikscat estimated winds of 65 knots just south of the storm's center.While the Russians think they can stop it from snowing, the Chinese have claimed that the unusual early snow on November 1st in Beijing was 'artificially induced'. But with 850 temperatures around -13C, it would have required quite an effort to stop it from snowing.A satellite image from that day reveals that a wide swath of snowfall swept for hundreds of miles across China before reaching Beijing, and without the slightest hint that the snow was enhanced at all in or near the city.If anything, it looks like lighter amounts fell in the city itself compared to the surrounding area.

North Pacific Storm

A storm in the North Pacific Ocean, just east of the Kamchatka Peninsula is now at 952 mb.Just for perspective, category 4 Hurricane Bill, which passed near Bermuda in August this year, had an estimated minimum pressure of 943 mb, and maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (130 mph). The Pacific Northwest is already being pounded with 27 foot waves and 50 knot winds (buoy 460410) by a 977 mb storm over the coast of British Columbia. The energy from the Kamchatka storm is forecast to hit the Pacific Northwest as early as Saturday, with increasingly stronger storms to follow through next week. The effect further downstream may be a white Thanksgiving for the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.Freeze warnings have been extended though the rest of Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

More Moscow Snow

According to this news report, the first snow of the season in Moscow was on November 6 and 7, and locals said this was much earlier than in recent years. The report for the 6th mentions heavy snow and 0.4 mile visibility, and more light snow fell all day today (7AM-10PM, Moscow time). The question is, at what point does everyone start to notice that the Russian air force can do nothing to stop it from snowing in Moscow?

Freeze warnings have now been extended into Austin, San Antonio, and the western two-thirds of Oklahoma.

The winter cold in Alaska has been intensifying fast over the last few day. Today in Tanana, just northwest of Fairbanks , it dropped to -45F.

Moscow Snow

It made big headlines about a month ago: "Moscow Mayor Promises A Winter Without Snow" (See full story here). The problem is, it snowed yesterday in Moscow all morning and again in the evening (2AM-12:30PM, and 8PM-11PM Moscow time, +9 from Central US), at times cutting visibility to under a mile. The snow comes just one day after the scheduled start of a plan to have the air force spray the clouds with chemicals in order to stop snow from reaching Moscow. I have not seen any news reports of the snowstorm or of any attempt to prevent it. It was claimed that the clouds would be sprayed only to prevent "very big and serious snow", and it seems that a snowstorm which is heavy enough to drop visibility to 0.9 miles with winds of only 6.7 mph should qualify.

During the weekend, a large cutoff low put down 6-12 inches of snow in the Denver area, up to 15 inches in the nearby higher mountains and over 5 inches in Goodland, Kansas. Snow depth as of midnight last night: Lighter amounts of snow fell further east today including Dodge City, Wichita (average first snow Dec 2), and Kansas City.

With the cold air wrapping around the back side of this storm, freeze warnings are now active for the higher elevation hill country north and west of Austin and San Antonio including Del Rio.

October Review And Two Big Storms

For the contiguous United States, October was the third coolest on record with records back to 1885. From the Pacific Northwest to the western Great Lakes, every state ranked in the top 10 coldest.It was also the wettest October on record with almost the entire Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley ranking in the top 5.

A storm of 946 millibars in the Gulf Of Alaska developed today and produced 60 knot wind gusts and 32 foot waves (buoy 46085).

Meanwhile, the remnant of Ida moves away from the east coast after hitting the Mid-Atlantic with 75 mph winds and over 10 inches of rain. At Norfolk, Virginia, the 7.40 inches of rain that fell exceeds the record for the entire month of November with records going back to 1871. The old record was 7.01 inches set in 1951. The tide gauge near Norfolk recorded a value of 7.74 feet above mean lower low water, which is only o.2 feet less than hurricane Isabel, and the 5th highest on record since 1930.

Remnant Of Hurricane Ida

The remnant of Hurricane Ida has deepened to 992 mb just off the North Carolina coast today. This is 7 mb lower than when it made landfall near Mobile, Alabama as a tropical storm on Tuesday morning.With a strong 1033 mb polar high over New England, the resulting pressure gradient is enough to produce northeast winds sustained at over 50 knots and gusts over 60 along the coast of Virginia (station CHYV2) and waves over 26 feet (station 44009). A storm warning (purple) has been issued from northern North Carolina to central New Jersey including southern Chesapeake Bay.Flood and coastal flood advisories are shown in various shades of green, and high wind warnings are in orange. The lighter purple shade over Charlottesville and Harrisonburg is for freezing rain later tonight expected for elevations above 2,500 feet.

At 9 o'clock PM EST at Virginia Beach, rain heavy enough to cut visibility to 3/4 of a mile was reported, and over 9 inches of rain had already fallen since Tuesday night. A look at the local radar shows no end in sight - Virginia Beach is just southeast of Norfolk.Winds at Virginia Beach gusted to 59 mph from 6-8 o'clock PM today.

Siberian Cold And Hurricane Ida

While most of the United States enjoys a late-season warm spell, with Woodward Oklahoma reporting 90 degrees on both Friday and Saturday, Siberia is already experiencing temps down to -40. Compare the hemispheric 850 mb analysis chart from this time last year with the current one.
Meanwhile, category two Hurricane Ida is moving into moderately strong wind shear and water temperatures in the mid-70s in the northern Golf Of Mexico and should weaken considerably. The main impact will be flooding rains in areas that have already had more than enough.

As odd as it may seem, the Mid Atlantic may get the worst effects from wind and coastal flooding if Ida stalls out off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday and produces an extended period of 40 knot+ onshore flow with the help of a 1030 mb high over the Great Lakes.

Gulf Of Alaska Storm

On Thursday, November 5, a storm in The Gulf Of Alaska bottomed out at 944 mb. Nearby buoy 46066 recorded 33 foot waves and 50 knot wind gusts.

Cold And Wet October

October 2009 was one of the coldest and wettest on record for most of the Midwest and Mississippi valley. Cheyenne, Wy had its coldest and snowiest October ever, North Platte, Ne had its snowiest and second coldest, and Goodland, Ks had its coldest with records going back to 1850. Many areas have also had record rainfall in October including Paducah, Ky, (10.55 inches), Memphis, Tn (10.56 inches), Little Rock, Ar (16.56), Shreveport, La (20.35 inches), and St. Louis, Mo where 12.38 inches is almost 4 inches more than the previous record of 8.52 set in 1909, and more than quadruple the normal October amount of 2.76.


Also, the storm mentioned yesterday over Hudson Bay bottomed out at 953 mb.
Note: end DST