Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew has become a category 5 storm with 160 mph wind and a minimum central pressure of 941 mb. The wind speed doubled in 24 hours. At 11 PM EDT on September 29th, it was only an 80 mph storm. None of the models had indicated such a rapid strengthening.

Matthew is the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic in over 9 years. The last category 5 was Hurricane Felix in September of 2007. Felix made landfall in Nicaragua. The US hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 2005.

Matthew is located south of Haiti and moving westward. It will soon begin curving to the north as it moves toward an upper trough. Matthew will likely pass near Jamaica, and cross Cuba and move into the Bahamas. It's too early to tell if Matthew poses a threat to the US East Coast. It may depend in part on the behavior of a larger trough currently over the West Coast.

Big Tornado Season Next Year?

The number of tornadoes in the US has been below normal for the last 5 years:

El Nino is gone. Over the last two months, sea surface temperatures have been below normal in the central equatorial Pacific. Trade winds have been above normal across most of the Pacific for the last week. It is likely that La Nina will emerge sometime later this year.

4 out of the last 5 years with tornado counts being more than 1 standard deviation above normal have been during or immediately following a transition from El Nino to La Nina (1998, 1999, 2008, 2011):

Three of these years (1999, 2008, 2011) had well above the normal number of strong tornadoes.

East Coast Blizzard

A major 983 mb East Coast storm (aka snowzilla) produced up to 42" of snow Friday and Saturday (Jan 23 and 24). Winter storm warnings (pink) were issued from Arkansas to South Carolina to Massachusetts. Blizzard warnings were issued from Washington DC to Long Island:

Here is a time lapse of the blizzard from Purcellville, VA:

Some snowfall totals:

Bowling Green, KY: 11"
Glengary, WV 1 ese: 42"
Dulles Airport, VA: 28.3"
BWI airport, MD: 29.2"
Rehouse, MD: 38"
Dover, DE 5.1 wsw: 18.2"
Philadelphia, PA: 22.4"
Atlantic City, NJ: 13.4"
Newark Airport, NJ: 28.1"
JFK Airport, NY: 30.5"
Nantucket, MA: 11.5"

The 29.2" for Baltimore is their largest on record. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Dewey Beach, DE and Langley AFB, VA. This storm caused 250,000 power outages, and over 12,000 flights were canceled.

Major coastal flooding occurred in New Jersey:

Jason Pellegrini shot this video of flooding in Sea Isle City, #NewJersey, on Saturday. #Snowzilla #blizzard https://t.co/f0cpQHz7DL

— Josh Berlinger (@j_berlingerCNN) January 24, 2016