Big Tornado Season Next Year?

The number of tornadoes in the US has been below normal for the last 5 years:

El Nino is gone. Over the last two months, sea surface temperatures have been below normal in the central equatorial Pacific. Trade winds have been above normal across most of the Pacific for the last week. It is likely that La Nina will emerge sometime later this year.

4 out of the last 5 years with tornado counts being more than 1 standard deviation above normal have been during or immediately following a transition from El Nino to La Nina (1998, 1999, 2008, 2011):

Three of these years (1999, 2008, 2011) had well above the normal number of strong tornadoes.

Near Record Low Tornado Numbers

For the third consecutive year, the number of tornadoes reported in the US is near or at record lows. The min/max lines are based on data from 1954-2007.

Here are the last 10 years on the same chart. All three of the last years are clustered at the bottom.