Mississippi Tornadoes April 28 2014

This is the storm that hit Tupelo, Mississippi with a tornado on April 28, 2014. The tornado is not clearly visible because it is behind trees. It may be visible in the video from 1:42-1:48. Power was out in Tupelo when we were there later that night. We were driving south on US 45, starting one mile north of US 78. The video runs from 2:43-2:49 PM CDT.

This is the storm that later hit the Columbus, Mississippi area with a tornado. We were driving north on US 45 just north of Macon. The video runs from 5:31-5:34 PM CDT on April 28, 2014.

Same storm a few minutes later while we were driving north on US 45. At Brooksville, we turn northwest on Alt 45. This video runs from 5:37-5:45 PM CDT.

Tracking the same storm driving north on US 45 (not Alt 45) just north of Brooksville, Mississippi. This video runs from 5:54-5:57 PM CDT.

In this video we see the tornado slightly to the right of the road near the end of the video. We are driving north on US 45 between Brooksville and Columbus. Video runs from 5:58-6:01 PM CDT.
 
The right side of the funnel is visible for only the first 5 seconds of this video. The rest is tornado damage as we continue north on US 45 between Brooksville and Columbus. Video runs from 6:01-6:05 PM CDT.
 

Tornado Outlook Apr 23

Strong tornadoes, damaging winds and very large hail are likely Saturday through Monday:

Winter Continues In The Great Lakes

It has now been over a month since the vernal equinox, and the Great Lakes are still 39.9% ice covered:

Most of the Great Lakes area was over 8 degrees F below normal in March and slightly below normal so far in April:

In Michigan, Detroit and Flint have now had the snowiest season on record. On April 15th, Detroit had 3.2" of snow, putting the total for the 2013-2014 season at 94.9". The previous record of 93.6" goes all the way back to the 1880-1881 season.

El Nino On The Way?

Equatorial upper-ocean temperature in the Pacific has risen by 2C over the last 2 months:

This anomalously warm water can be seen rising towards the surface here. As a result, sea surface temperatures have increased over the last month (see animation here).

There has also been a trend for slightly weaker trade winds beginning in January. All of this suggests that an El Nino could develop in time to disrupt the Atlantic hurricane season.

Tornado Outlook Apr 5

Expanded westward to include the Houson area.

Forecast Verification and Tornado Outlook Apr 4

There were several tornado reports near the southwest corner of the slight risk in Texas, and one at the northeast corner in Illinois. There were a few reports in the moderate risk in Missouri, where early convection may have been a mitigating factor. The warm sector never made it north of I-70.

There is a slight risk of tornadoes in southern Louisiana on Sunday:

Tornado Outlook Apr 2

Moved very slightly to the west for today. The main change is moving much to the northwest for tomorrow and adding a moderate risk.

Tornado Outlook Apr 1

Moved the tornado risk area north for Wednesday, and north and east for Thursday:

Convection may have a hard time getting through the cap on Wednesday. Much more widespread activity is expected on Thursday.