Forecast Verification and Tornado Outlook Mar 30

SPC storm reports indicates that tornadoes only occurred slightly north of my outlooked  area for March 27. This is somewhat surprising because dew points were only in the lower 50s in northern Missouri. It seems that strong lift and steep lapse rates were able to compensate.

More tornadoes are possible in the Southern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday:

Cape Cod Blizzard Update

The 955 mb storm which hit Cape Cod two days ago also hit buoy 44027 (20 nautical miles southeast of Jonesport, ME) with 103 (118 mph) knot winds:

The next day (Mar 27), buoy 44141 (about 300 miles southeast of Nova Scotia) recorded 54 foot waves:

Great Lakes Ice Cover Update

Yesterday (March 26) the Great Lakes were still 74.3% ice covered:

At this time last year, the Great Lakes were almost ice free:

Even after the cold winter of 2011, only Lake Eerie had significant ice:

The last time ice cover was anything close to this year was 2009:

Ice covered about the same areas in 2009 as this year, but ice concentration was lower in 2009.

Temperatures have been 8 to 12 degrees below normal across the Great Lakes during the last 30 days:

Cape Cod Blizzard

This morning, a storm hit Cape Cod with heavy snow and hurricane force winds, causing 7,800 power outages. Nantucket was hit with 9.5" of snow and 83 mph winds. The surface low was at 955 mb today, about 250 miles east of Cape Cod.

Current water vapor image:

Tornado Outlook Mar 26

Moved the risk area to the north.

Tornado Outlook March 25

There is a slight tornado risk on Thursday from around 0Z to 6Z (7 PM - 1 AM CDT). Wind and hail are the more likely threats.

Washington DC Snowstorm in March

Even Though it is March 17th, this storm hit Washington DC with 8 inches of snow, Hillandale, MD with 11" and Haywood, VA with 13.7".

2011 Japan Tsunami

Today is the third anniversary of the devastating earthquake and tsunami which hit Japan on March 11, 2011. At least 15,884 were killed, 6,148 were injured, and 2,633 were missing. 127,290 buildings were destroyed, 272,788 were half collapsed, and 747,989 were damaged. 4.4 million households lost power, and 1.5 million had no water. The economic cost was estimated to be around $300 billion.

At 14:46 JST (5:56 UTC), a 9.0 magnitude earthquake occurred 45 miles off the east coast of Japan, at a depth of 19 miles.
About 70 minutes later, a massive tsunami hit the Sendai area, traveling up to 6 miles inland:
The Tsunami was estimated to have reached a maximum height of 40.5 meters at Miyako.

The seismic moment from the earthquake was equivalent to 9,321 gigatons of TNT, or about 600 million times the energy released from the Hiroshima bomb. Peak ground acceleration was calculated to be 2.99 g, or 29.33 m/s2. Japan moved 7.9 feet closer to North America. 250 miles of Japan's coast dropped by 2 feet. The seabed between the earthquake epicenter and the Japan Trench moved 50 meters east-southeast and rose by 7 meters. The Earth's axis of rotation was estimated to have been moved between 4 and 10 inches, and the length of a day was shortened by 1.8 microseconds.

This video gives a good idea of what it was like to be in the path of the tsunami:

Great Lakes Ice Cover

It appears that ice cover on the Great Lakes reached its maximum extent on Thursday, March 6th at 92.19%:

This is the greatest extent since 1979 when ice cover reached 94.76%.

Florida Fire Whirls and The Everglades

While traveling through central Florida on highway US 27 in February 2008, we saw at least five fire whirls:

Early 2008 was a dry period for Florida and the Southeast.

The next day, we went through the Everglades. There were lots of Alligators and Anhingas. Some egrets, great blue herons, and turtles. In the video below, a very small lizard is standing on top of a wooden post at 3:25. Pelicans are at 3:35, and a crocodile is hiding at the center of the frame at 3:40:

Houston Freezing Rain

The arctic front which is continuing to undercut warm moist air in Texas led to a period freezing rain last night in Houston. Houston Intercontinental Airport reported freezing rain from 5 PM until midnight CST, when temperatures went back above freezing. The dramatic difference beteen 850 and 925 mb temperatures can be seen here:

Almost 40,000 customers lost power. Galveston had heavy rain with temperatures as low as 35 F.

Forecast Verification and Winter Storm Review

No tornadoes occurred in my outlooked area for March 2 because a rapidly moving arctic front undercut convection in Texas and Arkansas, and surface based convective initiation never occurred in northern Louisiana despite dew points reaching the upper 60s in the afternoon. Louisiana may have been too far ahead of the forcing associated with the main trough to the west.

This storm did produce 6" of sleet at Clarksville, TN and 0.50" of ice at New Lexington, OH and 0.5" of ice at Panther, WV. Snow amounts include:

6.1"     Hunter, OK 6.0 nne
6.5"     Pea Ridge, AR
8.5"     Anderson, MO 6.8 w
10.3"   Porter, IN
10"     Bruceton Mills, WV
10"     Cherry Grove, WV 6 wsw
9"       Manassas, VA
6"       American University, Washington DC
8.3"    Clarksburg, MD
7"       Ventnor City, NJ

This storm left the contiguous US 57.3% snow covered on March 3rd:

Winter Storm Today and Continuing Brutal Winter

A major winter storm is underway today from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. Winter storm warnings were issued from Kansas and Oklahoma to New Jersey, and wind chill warnings were issued across the Northern Plains as another arctic air mass comes in:

The arctic air undercut warm, moist air in the Southern Plains today, resulting in temperature inversions over 20C in the 900-800 mb layer as seen in the Norman, Oklahoma sounding this morning:

This strong temperature inversion has allowed heavy freezing rain to fall in very cold temperatures. For example, Mountain Home, AR is now (9 PM CST) reporting freezing rain with a temperature of 14.

This same storm hit California (now suffering an exceptional drought) with 4 feet of high elevation snow (Volcanic Knob), 12.44" of rain at Greenfield, 4.09" of rain at Los Angeles - USC, a 91 mph wind gust at Mount Wilson, and a 102 mph wind gust at Big Bear Lake.

This has been an extremely cold winter with repeated arctic outbreaks for the eastern two-thirds of the US. Temperatures have been as much as 9 degrees below normal in the Upper Mississippi Valley during meteorological winter (Dec thru Feb), and 12 degrees below normal for February:

Chicago has had the third coldest and third snowiest meteorological winter on record. The Great Lakes are now almost completely ice covered:

Tornado Outlook Mar 1 2014

Shifted slightly northeastward since the previous forecast.

Dan's Photos of the Washington Tornado

Dan's shots of the Washington tornado storm from near Benson, IL on Nov 17 2013: