Feb 17, 2014

Northeast Snow

Just two days after the East Coast was hit with a major winter storm, this Nor'easter hit the Northeast with more heavy snow:
This time, areas near to the coast received heavy snow amounts:

8" in Rhode Island (North Kingstown, Westerly)
15" in Massachusetts (Sandwich)
17.5" in Maine (Southwest Harbor)

A 52 mph wind gust was reported at Nantucket.

Feb 15, 2014

Chelyabinsk Meteor Impact and Shock Wave

Today (February 15th) is the first anniversary of the Chelyabinsk meteor impact, which produced about 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The shock wave damaged 7,200 buildings in six cities. At least 1,491 people were injured, mostly from broken glass from windows.





Perhaps in part because of the meteor strike, space agencies from around the world are establishing a group to help coordinate a response to any threatening asteroids in the future. The risk of another similar impact is not negligible. For example, 2000 SG344 is estimated to be over five times the mass of the Chelyabinsk meteor, and has a 1 in 417 chance of impact with Earth between 2069 and 2113.

Feb 14, 2014

Northeast Snow Update

Snowfall amounts update:

...MASSACHUSETTS...
LUDLOW                               16.0                    
ASHFIELD                             15.0                    
SPENCER                              15.0                    
SOUTHWICK                            13.6                    
PLAINFIELD                           13.4                    
SAVOY                                12.5                    
ACTON                                11.0                    
BECKET                               11.0                    
SUDBURY                              11.0                    
SHREWSBURY                           10.8                    
WESTBOROUGH                          10.5                    
CONCORD                               8.8                    

...MAINE...
FARMINGTON                           14.0                    
GREENWOOD                            14.0                    
CORNISH 1 SSW                        13.4                    
ISLAND FALLS                         13.0                    
NORTH WINDHAM 3 N                    11.0                    
SCARBOROUGH                          11.0                    
ASHLAND SSE                          10.5                    
CASCO 2 SW                           10.0                    
KINGBURY 2 SSE                       10.0                    
LIVERMORE FALLS 1 E                  10.0                    
PORTLAND JETPORT                      9.2                    
PARIS 4 E                             9.0                    
CARIBOU 1 N                           5.0                    

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
WASHINGTON 3 ESE                     11.6                    
GILFORD 3 SSE                        10.0                    
PETERBOROUGH                          8.5                    
MEREDITH                              8.1                    
EAST LEMPSTER                         8.0                    
NORTH SANDWICH 3 SE                   8.0                    
SOUTH HUDSON                          7.6                    
HENNIKER 1 SSE                        7.5                    
NASHUA                                7.0                    
RINDGE                                7.0                    
CONCORD                               6.6                    
BEDFORD                               6.0                    

...NEW YORK...
JEWETT                               25.8                    
COLUMBIAVILLE                        25.0                    
HOPEWELL JUNCTION                    22.0                    
POUGHKEEPSIE                         21.0                    
HARRIMAN                             20.5                    
STONY POINT                          17.2                    
EAST NASSAU                          16.5                    
BAYVILLE                             14.6                    
ALBANY 1 WNW                         14.5                    
PORT JERVIS                          14.5                    
CENTRAL PARK                         12.5                    
BAYSIDE                              11.8                    
LA GUARDIA ARPT                       7.7                    
JFK ARPT                              6.9                    
BROOKLYN 3.1 NW                       3.5 
 
...VERMONT...
MT. HOLLY                            20.0                    
POMFRET 2.6 N                        18.3                    
NORTHFIELD                           17.0                    
CORINTH                              15.7                    
WEST HALIFAX 0.2 SE                  14.5                    
CHESTER                              14.0                    
WEST RUTLAND 1.2 N                   13.4                    
ARLINGTON 0.9 SSW                    13.0                    
PITTSFORD                            13.0                    
EAST MONTPELIER                      12.0                    
JEFFERSONVILLE                       12.0                    
MONTPELIER                            2.1                     

Eastern US Snow and Ice Storm

Over the last four days (Feb 11-14), this storm produced 28.5" of snow in Virginia, 3" of sleet in South Carolina, and 1" of freezing rain in Louisiana and South Carolina:



Winter storm warnings were issued from Texas to the Northeast:
In parts of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, the unusual step of issuing a civil emergency message (light pink) was taken because of freezing rain:
This storm caused 6,500 flights to be cancelled and 800,000 customers to lose power across the eastern US.

Here is the full list of  snow, sleet, and freezing rain reports from the Weather Prediction Center:


...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 900 AM EST TUE FEB
11 THROUGH 300 AM EST FRI FEB 14...

...CONNECTICUT...
FAIRFIELD                            14.0                    
MILFORD                              13.5                    
DARIEN                               13.0                    
NORWALK                              12.0                    
GREENWICH                            11.0                    
WINSTED                              11.0                    
NORTH HAVEN                          10.7                    
BERLIN                               10.0                    
HARTFORD                             10.0                    
ROXBURY                              10.0                    
BRIDGEPORT ARPT                       9.5                    
BRISTOL                               9.0                    
COVENTRY                              9.0                    
WEST HARTFORD                         7.0                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHWICK                            13.0                    
SAVOY                                12.5                    
LUDLOW                               12.0                    
ACTON                                11.0                    
BECKET                               11.0                    
SUDBURY                              11.0                    
WESTBOROUGH                          10.5                    
WORCESTER 3 WNW                      10.5                    
GRAFTON                              10.0                    
HUNTINGTON                           10.0                    
LOWELL                               10.0                    
SPENCER                              10.0                    
READING                               9.0                    
FRAMINGHAM                            7.8                    
MILLIS                                7.5                    
LUNENBURG                             7.2                    

...MAINE...
CASCO 2 SW                           10.0                    
LIVERMORE FALLS 1 E                  10.0                    
PARIS 4 E                             9.0                    
AUBURN 2 W                            8.5                    
LEWISTON 2 E                          8.3                    
BRIDGTON                              8.2                    
WINTHROP 1 ENE                        8.0                    
YARMOUTH                              8.0                    
SACO                                  7.7                    
DURHAM                                7.3                    
ARUNDEL                               7.0                    
EASTPORT                              6.3                    
SURRY 2 E                             6.1                    
KINGBURY 2 SSE                        6.0                    
MILO                                  6.0                    

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
WASHINGTON 3 ESE                     11.6                    
GILFORD 3 SSE                        10.0                    
PETERBOROUGH                          8.5                    
MEREDITH                              8.1                    
EAST LEMPSTER                         8.0                    
NORTH SANDWICH 3 SE                   8.0                    
SOUTH HUDSON                          7.6                    
HENNIKER 1 SSE                        7.5                    
NASHUA                                7.0                    
RINDGE                                7.0                    
CONCORD                               6.6                    
BEDFORD                               6.0                    

...NEW JERSEY...
KEARNY                               15.0                    
EAST RUTHERFORD                      14.4                    
ROCKAWAY TWP                         14.0                    
VERONA                               14.0                    
WAYNE                                13.0                    
WESTFIELD                            13.0                    
PENNSAUKEN                           12.1                    
BASKING RIDGE                        12.0                    
NEWPORT                              12.0                    
WASHINGTON                           12.0                    
PITTSGROVE TWP 1.9 S                 11.8                    
CHERRY HILL                          11.7                    
MORRISTOWN                           11.6                    
CAMDEN                               11.5                    
STEWARTSVILLE                        11.5                    

...NEW YORK...
BAYVILLE                             14.6                    
HARRIMAN                             14.5                    
PORT JERVIS                          14.5                    
COMMACK                              14.0                    
BAY SHORE                            13.5                    
WOODBURY                             13.5                    
BRONXVILLE                           13.3                    
POTTER HOLLOW                        13.0                    
CONGERS                              12.8                    
SOUTH BERNE                          12.0                    
DOUGLASTON                           11.5                    
EARLTON                              11.5                    
DURHAM                               11.0                    
POUGHKEEPSIE                         10.6                    
HARRISON                             10.5                    
CENTRAL PARK                          9.5                    
LA GUARDIA ARPT                       7.7                    
ALBANY                                6.3                    
JFK ARPT                              5.5                    
BROOKLYN 3.1 NW                       3.5                    

...PENNSYLVANIA...
GLENCOE 1 E                          22.5                    
DINGMANS FERRY                       21.0                    
DOVER                                20.0                    
SEVEN VALLEYS                        18.0                    
HAZLETON                             16.0                    
LOGANVILLE                           16.0                    
NEW FREEDOM                          16.0                    
EXTON                                15.2                    
DOWNINGTOWN                          15.0                    
SPORTING HILL                        15.0                    
SHREWSBURY                           14.5                    
EASTON                               14.0                    
ALLENTOWN ARPT                       13.6                    
PERKASIE                             13.2                    
MILLERSVILLE                         12.6                    
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT                9.8                    
HARRISBURG INTL ARPT                  7.9                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
WEST GLOCESTER                        9.6                    
BURRILLVILLE                          9.0                    
NORHT FOSTER                          8.6                    
NORTH SCITUATE                        6.5                    
WOONSOCKET                            6.4                    
CUMBERLAND                            6.0                    

...VERMONT...
BELLOWS FALLS                         9.5                    
SOUTH NEWFANE                         9.0                    
TOWNSHEND                             8.0                    
WOODFORD                              8.0                    
CHESTER                               7.0                    
WASHINGTON                            7.0                    
LUDLOW 3 S                            6.8                    
CAVENDISH                             6.5                    
MT. HOLLY                             5.5                    
MONTPELIER                            2.1                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ICE AMOUNTS IN INCHES FROM
900 AM EST TUE FEB 11 THROUGH 300 AM EST FRI FEB 14...

...CONNECTICUT...
MERIDEN                               0.30                    
NAUGATUCK                             0.30                    
DANBURY AIRPORT                       0.20                    
NEW HAVEN                             0.20                    

...NEW JERSEY...
FORT LEE                              0.30                    

...NEW YORK...
SOUTH OZONE PARK                      0.30                    
STONY BROOK                           0.20                    

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...MASSACHUSETTS...
ROCKPORT                              54                    
CHATHAM                               53                    
EAST FALMOUTH                         52                    
ORLEANS                               52                    
MILTON 3 SSW                          51                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
CULLMAN                              10.0                    
HUNTSVILLE 7.9 SSE                   10.0                    
EVA                                   9.0                    
UNION GROVE                           7.0                    
HAMPTON COVE 2.1 WNW                  6.0                    
OWENS CROSSROADS 5 NW                 6.0                    
PISGAH 1.8 W                          6.0                    
TOWN CREEK                            6.0                    
HUNTSVILLE 4 ESE                      5.0                    
MOULTON 12 W                          5.0                    
TRINITY 4 SW                          5.0                    
ROGERSVILLE 6 ESE                     4.8                    
DOUBLE SPRINGS 2 N                    4.5                    
GOOD HOPE                             4.0                    
MOORES MILL 7 SSE                     4.0                    
NEW MARKET                            4.0                    
BIRMINGHAM 3 WSW                      3.0                    
SYLVAN SPRINGS                        3.0                    

...WASHINGTON DC...
DALECARLIA RESERVIOR                 10.0                    
WASHINGTON 1 E                        8.5                    
ADAMS MORGAN 1 S                      4.5                    

...DELAWARE...
NEWARK                               14.1                    
NEWPORT                              12.0                    
BEAR                                 11.0                    
NEW CASTLE                           10.0                    
WILMINGTON ARPT                      10.0                    

...GEORGIA...
BATESVILLE                           10.0                    
SUMMERVILLE 9.4 ENE                   9.8                    
CORNELIA 2 SW                         8.5                    
MOUNTAIN CITY 2 SW                    7.5                    
ELBERTON                              7.0                    
CARLTON 1.9 SSE                       6.2                    
CUMMING 5.2 S                         6.2                    
CLARKSVILLE                           6.0                    
RABUN GAP 2.1 SW                      5.9                    
MCCAYSVILLE 5.7 WSW                   4.6                    
CARNESVILLE 7.3 SW                    4.5                    

...KENTUCKY...
JENKINS                              14.0                    
DORTON                               12.0                    
MOUTHCARD                            12.0                    
CUMBERLAND                           11.0                    
ELKHORN CITY                         11.0                    
MOUSIE                               11.0                    
ROCKHOUSE                             9.0                    
THORNTON                              9.0                    
PIKEVILLE                             8.0                    
HARLAN 7 SE                           7.0                    
LUNCH                                 7.0                    
BENHAM                                6.5                    
MIDDLESBORO                           6.0                    

...MARYLAND...
GLYNDON 1 ESE                        26.0                    
WESTMINSTER 2 SE                     24.8                    
OWINGS MILLS                         24.0                    
REISTERSTOWN 4 ENE                   24.0                    
OAKLAND                              23.0                    
GAITHER 2 SE                         22.0                    
REDHOUSE                             22.0                    
DAMASCUS 3 SSW                       21.3                    
FREDERICK 3 NW                       20.5                    
FROSTBURG                            20.0                    
NEW MARKET                           19.0                    
GLYNDON                              18.0                    
NORRISVILLE                          18.0                    
MOUNT AIRY                           17.0                    
WESTERNPORT                          17.0                    
GAITHERSBURG 2.5 SW                  13.0                    
BWI ARPT                             12.3                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
BOONES HILL                          21.0                    
BOONVILLE                            19.0                    
STATESVILLE 3 N                      18.0                    
MOUNT AIRY                           17.0                    
GLADE VALLEY                         15.0                    
SALUDA 0.5 N                         15.0                    
WEST JEFFERSON                       14.5                    
IRON STATION                         14.0                    
FAIRVIEW                             13.0                    
JONAS RIDGE                          12.0                    
ROARING GAP                          12.0                    
LINVILLE                             11.0                    
CLYDE                                10.5                    
MORAVIAN FALLS                        9.0                    
SEVEN DEVILS                          9.0                    
WAYNESVILLE                           9.0                    
GREENSBORO 6 N                        7.0                    
PIEDMONT TRIAD ARPT                   7.0                    
RALEIGH 8 S                           6.0                    
CHARLOTTE 6 SSE                       5.5                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
CLOVER                               10.0                    
HEATH SPRINGS 2 NNW                   8.0                    
KERSHAW 6.8 ESE                       8.0                    
LANCASTER 6 NNE                       8.0                    
SILVERSTREET 5 WNW                    8.0                    
MAULDIN 5 E                           7.5                    
ROCK HILL 2.8 W                       7.5                    
BUFFALO                               7.0                    
POMARIA 5.0 NW                        6.7                    
ROCK HILL                             6.5                    
GREER 5.6 NW                          6.3                    
BETHUNE                               6.0                    
LANCASTER MILL                        6.0                    
LAURENS                               6.0                    
NEWBERRY                              6.0                    
WINNSBORO                             6.0                    
ANDERSON 5.3 N                        5.8                    
GREENWOOD 3 N                         5.5                    
HODGES 5.5 NE                         5.3                    
CHESTERFIELD                          5.0                    
YORK 3 S                              4.5                    
ANDERSON 7 SW                         4.0                    
LEXINGTON                             4.0                    
SENECA                                4.0                    
CHESTER                               3.5                    

...TENNESSEE...
JONESBOROUGH 2.5 SSW                 11.3                    
NORRIS 0.6 NW                        11.0                    
OOLTEWAH 2.0 S                        9.7                    
BENTON 2.3 ESE                        9.0                    
OAK RIDGE 5.7 NE                      8.6                    
ERWIN 11 SSW                          6.0                    
CROSSVILLE                            5.0                    
LIMESTONE 5 ENE                       5.0                    
GATLINBURG                            4.0                    
HUNTSVILLE                            4.0                    
TRACY CITY 6 WSW                      3.0                    
LYNNVILLE 7 NNE                       2.5                    
LAWRENCEBURG 6 E                      2.0                    
MONTEREY 5 E                          2.0                    
JAMESTOWN                             1.2                    

...VIRGINIA...
PILOT 1 W                            28.5                    
ALUM RIDGE                           26.3                    
COPPER HILL                          23.0                    
RADFORD                              22.0                    
CAVE SPRING                          21.5                    
ROANOKE                              21.0                    
HAYWOOD                              20.7                    
LINDEN 2 N                           20.5                    
GREENVILLE 3 E                       20.0                    
WINCHESTER                           20.0                    
MILLBORO                             19.2                    
HEATHERSTONE                         19.0                    
HARDY                                18.5                    
PURCELLVILLE                         17.0                    
SALEM CITY                           16.0                    
SNOW CREEK                           15.0                    
STUARTS DRAFT                        15.0                    
LAUREL RIDGE                         13.0                    
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP                  6.0                    
RICHMOND INTL ARPT                    3.7                    

...WEST VIRGINIA...
MOUNT STORM                          27.5                    
CHERRY GROVE 6 WSW                   25.0                    
BAYARD                               22.2                    
HARMAN                               21.0                    
BELINGTON                            20.0                    
MONTROSE                             20.0                    
BERKELEY                             19.3                    
HARPERS FERRY                        18.0                    
BURKES GARDEN                        17.0                    
CLINTONVILLE                         17.0                    
CRAIGSVILLE                          17.0                    
DAVIS                                17.0                    
GREENBANK                            17.0                    
ATHENS                               16.0                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SLEET AMOUNTS IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT
HAS ENDED...

...LOUISIANA...
FARMERVILLE                           1.00                    
BASTROP                               0.15                    
OAK GROVE                             0.10                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HAMPSTEAD 2 NNW                       0.50                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
FOREST ACRES 2 SSE                    3.00                    
AIKEN                                 2.00                    
BISHOPVILLE                           2.00                    
SPRINGDALE 7 WNW                      2.00                    
BAMBERG                               1.00                    
FORK 1 E                              0.30                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT
HAS ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
BESSEMER 4 SW                         0.70                    

...ARKANSAS...
BRADLEY                               0.25                    

...GEORGIA...
MILLEN 5 S                            0.75                    
SYLVANIA                              0.75                    
AUGUSTA                               0.50                    
MARIETTA                              0.50                    
PORTAL                                0.50                    
THOMSON                               0.50                    
MARTINEZ                              0.30                    
LINCOLNTON                            0.20                    
FLOWERY BRANCH 1 SSE                  0.10                    

...LOUISIANA...
TALLULAH                              1.00                    
BOSSIER CITY                          0.30                    
SHONGALOO 5 N                         0.30                    
WEST MONROE                           0.30                    
BRADLEY                               0.25                    
HOMER 1 N                             0.25                    
PINE PRAIRIE                          0.25                    
SHREVEPORT                            0.25                    
WINNSBORO                             0.25                    
KEACHI 8 ESE                          0.20                    
ESLER REGIONAL ARPT                   0.14                    
CLARKSVILLE CITY                      0.10                    
COLUMBIA 5 NNW                        0.10                    
LONGVIEW                              0.10                    
RUSTON 7 NW                           0.10                    
SHREVEPORT 10 SSW                     0.10                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
CARROLLTON                            0.20                    
VICKSBURG                             0.20                    
ACKERMAN                              0.10                    
CLINTON 4 S                           0.10                    
HAZLEHURST                            0.10                    
LOUISE                                0.10                    
MAYERSVILLE                           0.10                    
NATCHEZ                               0.10                    
ROLLING FORK                          0.10                    
ROXIE                                 0.10                    
YAZOO CITY                            0.10                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
WRIGHTSBORO 1 SSE                     0.56                    
CASTLE HAYNE 3 SSW                    0.25                    
NEWELL 3 S                            0.25                    
WILMINGTON                            0.20                    
ROCKINGHAM                            0.15                    
RALEIGH 5 NE                          0.13                    
CHAPEL HILL                           0.10                    
EMIT 1 SE                             0.10                    
HAMPSTEAD                             0.10                    
LILLINGTON 5 S                        0.10                    
MASONBORO                             0.10                    
SOUTHERN PINES                        0.10                    
SANFORD 1 S                           0.07                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
CROSS                                 1.00                    
HARLEYVILLE                           1.00                    
ORANGEBURG 1 N                        1.00                    
SMOAKS                                1.00                    
MONCKS CORNER                         0.75                    
AIKEN                                 0.70                    
BARNWELL                              0.70                    
COLUMBIA                              0.50                    
HAMPTON                               0.50                    
KNIGHTSVILLE 1 E                      0.50                    
MANNING                               0.50                    
MCCORMICK                             0.50                    
MULBERRY 2 SW                         0.50                    
OLD SANTEE CAN 1 WNW                  0.50                    
ORANGEBURG                            0.50                    
SAINT MATTHEWS                        0.50                    
SUMMERVILLE 1 S                       0.50                    
FLORENCE 1 WNW                        0.30                    

...TEXAS...
BULLARD 7 WNW                         0.25                    
CHRISTOVAL 4 WSW                      0.20                    
APPLEBY                               0.12                    
CLARKSVILLE CITY                      0.10                    
LONGVIEW                              0.10                    
SAN ANGELO 4 W                        0.10  

On February 8th, this 984 mb storm just off the east coast of Japan hit Tokyo with 10.6" of snow, the most in 45 years. Sendai received 13.7" of snow, the most in 78 years.


Feb 12, 2014

New Long Range Tornado Outlook Graphic

I am going to begin experimenting with my own long range tornado forecasts. These will include scenarios with higher uncertainty than would outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. This will allow for longer range outlooks in some cases. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center's outlooks do not include a tornado outlook beyond day 1.

Feb 8, 2014

6 Intense UK Storms

Yesterday (Feb 7), another very intense storm hit the British Isles. This one bottomed out at 941 mb.

This has been at least the 6th storm of 950 mb or lower to hit the British Isles since the 929 mb storm on Christmas eve.